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Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention National Center for Environmental Health Case Studies in Applied Epidemiology No. 002-800 |
TOS (Toxic Oil Syndrome) An Epidemic of Mass Proportions in Spain, 1981 |
Instructor's Guide
Learning Objectives
After completing this case study, the participant should be able to:
¨ Discuss the development of a case definition;
¨ Discuss the elements of design and the advantages and disadvantages of case-control versus cohort studies;
¨ Dscuss some of the biases that might have affected these studies;
¨ List and evaluate the criteria for causation;
¨ Calculate and interpret the meaning of a relative risk and odds ratio;
¨
Discuss epidemic curves and the choice of units of time.
| This case study was originally written by Rossanne Philen in February 2000. Current version was written by Rossanne Philen and Richard Dicker in August 2000. It is based on the investigation of a large outbreak of an unusual syndrome dubbed "Toxic Oil Syndrome" that occurred in Spain in 1981. |
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
SERVICES
Public Health Service |
Part I
In 1981, Spain had just joined the ranks of the other more developed European countries, after a brutal civil war in the 1930s and a long dictatorship under General Francisco Franco. Spain was now a constitutional monarchy with Ministers heading the Departments of Health and Consumer Affairs, Agriculture, State, and other major government functions.
In the late 1970s Spain had started a national healthcare system, providing essentially free care to all of its 35 million citizens. The educational level of physicians in Spain had always been high, and with the new emphasis on health care, they started to bring Spanish medicine into line with other developed countries.
The Ministry of Health and Consumer Affairs was in charge of the national health care system, and also ran the national medical schools and the schools of public health. While Spain had many fine research epidemiologists at that time, few were knowledgeable or experienced in field epidemiology.
Spain’s major export products at that time were agricultural, including fruits, vegetables, meat, wines, and olive oil. Although it was a major export product, domestic demand for olive oil always exceeded supply. Spaniards typically went home for a hot lunch every day and consumed a Mediterranean diet of salads, fruits, vegetables, fish, olive oil and wine.
While the standard of living was improving overall, many Spaniards lived in rural or semi-rural areas and shopped at little open-air markets ("mercadillos"), where most household goods and food items were available through itinerant vendors.
Madrid is the capital city of Spain, and is centrally located. The population of the metropolitan Madrid area then was approximately 6 million, and many people lived in newly developing areas on the outskirts of the city.
On May 1, 1981, an eight-year-old boy was pronounced dead on arrival at a hospital in Madrid, Spain. Within days, five other members of his family were examined at the same hospital with similar signs and symptoms which included interstitial pulmonary infiltrate on chest X-ray, headache, asthenia, scalp itchiness, and slight fever. This syndrome was initially diagnosed as an atypical pneumonia. Soon, the number of patients admitted to Madrid hospitals with this clinical presentation increased dramatically. The clinical features of these early patients are listed in Table 1.
Table 1. Some clinical features of early patients, Madrid, 1981
Clinical feature Percent
myalgia 80.0%eosinophilia 78.0%
pulmonary findings 70.0%
fever 59.0%
rash 39.0%
scalp itch 22.0%
acute encephalopathy 1.2%
| Question 1:
What level of disease surveillance would be appropriate at this time? Should
the surveillance be national or local? Should the system be active or passive?
Answer 1 [I’m not sure what you mean by "level"] If cases are being identified in hospitals throughout the city, then citywide surveillance is needed. With a rapid rise in the number of cases of a new disease that is potentially fatal, active surveillance seems appropriate. Phone calls to some of the suburban hospitals and to major hospitals in other cities might be useful in determining whether similar cases are occurring outside Madrid. In the absence of cases, passive surveillance outside Madrid might be reasonable. |
| Question 2:
Develop a surveillance case definition. What would you include in this
definition? Why?
Answer 2 Instructor’s Note: Split the class into groups of about 4 students. Review the components of a case definition: 1. Clinical - lab tests, signs and symptoms, etc. 2. Time 3. Place 4. Person In many settings epidemiologists establish categories of uncertainty in case definitions, e.g., confirmed / probable / possible. This is the usual approach when laboratory tests are unavailable, difficult, expensive, or unnecessary after a few cases have been confirmed. The approach of confirmed-probable-possible allows one to: · analyze data using what are believed to be both sensitive and specific case definitions, · define more precisely the clinical spectrum of an unknown disease, · evaluate factors predictive of mild vs. severe disease. One starting point might be: |
| Question 3:
Develop a case report form for health professionals to use to collect data
on cases. What sorts of questions would you include on the case report
form?
All surveillance instruments should include the following categories of information: · Demographic information (date of birth or age, sex, perhaps occupation) - allows characterization of populations at risk · Clinical information (date of onset, signs/symptoms, lab results {especially eosinophil count, sputum culture results}, CXR findings, hospitalized (where), died?) - allows verification of case definition, characterization of spectrum and course of disease, impact on resources, etc. · Risk factors – difficult to know what to include beyond "contact with known case?" but usually includes travel, immunization status, possible exposures such as food, water, swimming, animals) - to help generate or evaluate hypotheses during an investigation, targeting of prevention and/or control measures · Reporter identifying information (name, address, phone number, date of report) - allows follow-up, feedback · Contacts – whom the case may have exposed (STDs, rabies, hep A in foodhandler, et al.) |
Table 2 shows the number of new cases reported daily during the first 4 weeks.
Table 2. New cases of epidemic illness and time of identification, Madrid, 1981
Day # # Cases identified
Day # # Cases identified1 12 0
3 2
4 1
5 0
6 1
7 1
8 2
9 2
10 0
11 612 5
13 4
14 9
15 32
16 55
17 96
18 130
19 155
20 199
Day # # Cases identified
21 23322 129
23 210
24 202
25 161
26 200
27 211
28 187
| Question 4:
Draw an epidemic curve of the illness. Should the data be graphed daily,
weekly, monthly, or otherwise? Why?
Answer 4 See epi curves next page Epi curves of a new disease (or disease of unknown etiology) should be graphed in a variety of ways. For a known disease, the most appropriate units of time for the X-axis depend on the incubation period of the disease, the length of time over which cases are distributed, and the points you wish to communicate with the graph. One rule of thumb states that the units should be between one-eighth to one-third (e.g., roughly one-quarter) as long as the incubation period of the disease in question. The incubation period of the current illness is unknown, so the investigator should use a variety of intervals. |
| Question 5:
Has the epidemic peaked yet? How do you know?
Answer 5 The epidemic may have plateaued, but there is no evidence that it is on the downslope. 150 - 233 cases are still being diagnosed every day. |
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Early in the epidemic the clinical picture was thought to be consistent with an infectious agent as the cause of the illness. Later, two findings lent support to this hypothesis: one was the isolation of Legionella gormany from a patient's sputum. The second, made by a group of pathologists, was of a morphological structure compatible with Mycoplasma pneumoniae in the lung of a deceased patient.
With an infectious hypothesis in mind, clinicians at a Madrid pediatric hospital compared children treated with erythromycin to groups who received other treatments, including antihistamines, other antibiotics, and placebo, but they found that the clinical course of the disease was similar in all groups. A dietary study done early in the epidemic included many non-specific questions about foods. However, the results did not suggest any as a possible cause.
Concurrently, Dr. Manuel Tabuenca,
also a pediatrician, noted that children with the new disease developed
a clinical syndrome different from adults, with a rash suggestive of a
reaction to an external agent. Although cases of illness had been frequent
in children, babies under six months of age appeared to have been spared.
Thus, when an infant less than six months old was identified with the disease,
Tabuenca focused on exposures the baby might have had in common with older
children and adults.
| Question 6:
What exposures would you consider in children? What exposures would you
consider specifically in the baby? Why?
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| Question 7: Describe
what kind of study you would do to assess the role of environmental exposures
in these children.
[This question comes out of the blue.
No environmental hypothesis has been suggested. Do you mean the exposures
the students suggested in the previous question? If so, I would reword
to say "Describe what kind of study you would do to assess the exposures
you’ve suggested in the previous question."]
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Part II
Dr. Tabuenca learned that the infant's
grandmother had added a particular type of cooking oil, sold in an unlabeled
5 liter plastic container, to the baby's formula as a dietary supplement.
| Question 8:
What kind of study should Dr. Tabuenca do? Why?
[I would have done a case-control study
for the previous question and for this one. Would you have done something
differently? If the answer is the same, I’d delete one of the questions.
If you have different answers, please tell!]
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| Question 9:
What questions would you include in the study?
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| Question 10:
What problems / issues should you consider when designing this study?
Answer 10 Issues include power, bias, and ???. Bias is any error in the design, conduct, or analysis of a study that results in a distorted estimate of an exposure's effect on the risk of disease (or other health problem). Systematic error (bias) is related to the design, conduct or analysis of a study. In contrast, random error is related to sample size. In general, biases can be categorized as follows: b. Diagnosis c. Referral (hospitalization, Berksonian) d. Nonresponse e. Inappropriate comparison group
b. Interviewer/abstractor c. Data collection d. Prevarication (lying)
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| Question 11:
If you were the lead epidemiologist investigating this epidemic, what would
you do now, and why?
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Part III
Mothers of children admitted to the hospital with the new disease were interviewed. Their responses were compared to those from mothers of children admitted for trauma or surgery.
The crude data from Dr. Tabuenca’s study showed that all of the 62 children with the new disease had consumed oil from unlabeled 5 liter plastic containers. Of the 62 children admitted for trauma or surgery, only 4 of 62 had consumed that type of oil.
The data from an epidemiologic study
can be summarized by cross-tabulating exposure status and disease status
in a two-by-two table, as shown below.
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A measure of association quantifies the strength or magnitude of the statistical association between the exposure and the health outcome of interest. Two commonly used measures of association are the relative risk and the odds ratio.
The relative risk reflects the risk of disease in the exposed group versus the risk in the unexposed group. In most case-control studies, since the true size of the exposed and unexposed groups is not known, you do not have a denominator with which to calculate an attack rate or risk. When case-control data are used, the odds ratio is calculation as an approximation of the relative risk.
What level are the intended students?
Do we really need to explain a 2-by-2 table?
| Question 12:
What kind of study did Dr. Tabuenca conduct?
Answer 12 A case-control study. [This answer will be expanded to describe cohort vs. case-control.] |
| Question
13: Draw a 2x2 table
using Dr. Tabuenca’s data.
Answer 13 |
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| Question 14:
Which measure of association would you calculate for this study, the relative
risk or the odds ratio? Why? When would you use the other one?
Answer 14 Since this is a case-control study, the odds ratio is appropriate, but the relative risk is not. The relative risk is the preferred measure for a cohort study, in which denominators are known and attack rates can be calculated. In a case-control study such as this one, we rarely know the true denominators needed for an attack rate, e.g., how many children were exposed to oil in the community from which the cases came, and how many were not exposed. Since we cannot calculate true attack rates among those exposed and not exposed we cannot calculate the the ratio of the attack rates, which is the relative risk. The odds ratio is not based on attack rates, so it is the measure of choice in case-control studies. |
| Question 15:
Use the information from the two-by-two table, calculate the appropriate
measure of association.
Answer 15 RR = inappropriate OR = not calculable, since cell c = 0 (cannot divide by 0). In the study, cell c = 0, indicating that all cases were exposed and none were unexposed ("the exposure could account for all of the cases"), whereas only 4 of 62 controls were exposed. When cell c = 0, some epidemiologists either replace the 0 with 0.5, or add 0.5 to each of the four cells. Although we do not advocate routine use of such fudging techniques, it sometimes is helpful in giving the epidemiologist a "quick-and-dirty" estimate of the magnitude of the association. Sometimes the fudging is quite sensitive to sample size and to the value of the fudge (adding 0.1 or 0.5 or 1.0 gives different results.) If only the 0 in cell c is replaced, the fudged odds ratio = (62 x 58) / (4 x 0.5) = 1798.0 If 0.5 is added to each cell, the fudged odds ratio = (62.5 x 58.5) / (4.5 x 0.5) = 1625.0 |
| Question 16:
What does this measure of association mean in plain English? What would
a measure of association equal to 1.0 mean?
Answer 16 Strictly speaking, the interpretation is that the odds of consuming oil was incalculably higher (probably at least 1798 times higher) among cases than among non-cases. In this instance, the illness, while occurring in epidemic proportions, is still a rare disease in the overall community and the odds ratio is a good approximator of the relative risk. Assuming that the study is not biased, one would infer that the risk of illness was vastly higher among those who consumed oil than among those who did not. |
Part IV
Dr. Tabuenca’s study established that consumption of oil sold in unlabeled 5 liter plastic containers was a risk factor for developing the new disease.
Following Dr. Tabuenca’s discovery, oils were collected from some households and open air markets and analyzed by the official customs laboratory. They were found to have come from rapeseed oil (the generic name for Canola® oil) originally denatured with 2% aniline, but which now contained other aniline-derived compounds.
Officials learned later that the customs
laboratory had known of the importation of aniline-denatured rapeseed oil
for several months. On June 10, 1981, 40 days after the epidemic started,
in an attempt to prevent further cases, the Ministry of Health and Consumer
Affairs (MHCA) alerted the population about the relationship of the epidemic
disease with the consumption of unlabeled adulterated oil.
| Question 17:
How should the MHCA inform the public about the suspect oil?
Answer 17 Since different people use different sources to get their information, a variety of strategies are needed to get the word out. These might include: · press conference and press releases · signs in grocery stores and markets · ???
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| Question 18:
What might the MHCA do to prevent additional exposures?
Answer 18 · product recall ? (may be difficult
given how this oil was sold)
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Part V
Once the oil-disease relationship was announced, the number of new cases of what came to be called toxic oil syndrome (TOS) decreased rapidly. However, some patients who had been discharged in good condition were readmitted, leading the
MHCA to suspect that these patients may have been re-exposed. Thus an official oil recall program began on June 30, 1981.
People concerned about their oil exchanged
it for pure olive oil at government expense.
Figure 2. Cases of Toxic Oil Syndrome by week, Madrid, 1981
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| Question 19:
Describe the epidemic curve. Which epidemic pattern (.e.g., point source,
continuous common source, intermittent exposure, propagated, etc.) is most
consistent with the curve? Why might the epidemic curve have started to
fall before the oil disease relationship was announced?
Answer 19 · This pattern (sharp rise, single peak, slower decline) is quite consistent with a point source epidemic (short duration of exposure to a single agent or product). · If only a single batch of oil was contaminated (consistent with the appearance of a point source epidemic), then one would expect to see a decline after the oil from that batch had been largely used / consumed. |
Part VI
While the fall in new cases prior to the announcement of the implicated oil could have resulted from several factors, most likely the etiologic oil had all been sold and further exposure was limited to households who already had the oil. Another possibility would be that all the susceptibles had already been affected, and the remaining non-ill people were not susceptible.
Around the time of Dr. Tabuenca’s study, a Dr. Rigau performed four population-based case-control studies in the town of Navas del Marqués, 47 miles northeast of Madrid. The first of these studies examined various hypotheses including respiratory transmission, but did not ask about oil consumption, and found no potential risk factors for illness. After the oil-disease relationship was announced, a second study was done in the same town, which asked about the use of oil from unlabeled 5 liter containers and which confirmed Tabuenca’s results. This study not only showed an association between the oil and illness, but also showed an association between a specific vendor of unlabeled oil and TOS.
Another of the four studies suggested a dose response effect, but this was never replicated. The use of oil in family meals meant that persons were usually unaware of the quantity or type of oil they consumed. The study also assumed that all family members consumed similar amounts of the same oil, and this was estimated from weekly oil consumption, typically reported by the housewife. The difficulty inherent in determining individual oil consumption impeded later attempts to study the individual dose-response relationship of the oil to TOS.
Eight additional case-control studies
were conducted after those of Tabuenca and Rigau. Although the studies’
methods were similar and all used the diagnosis of an atypical pneumonia
as a case definition, they were performed in different geographic areas
by different research teams. All of these studies showed a strong association
between development of TOS and the ingestion of oils sold by itinerant
salesmen in unlabeled 5 liter plastic containers that had not been subject
to sanitary control.
| Question 20:
What criteria for causation have been met so far that would suggest that
the implicated oil was responsible for the epidemic?
Answer 20 Different epidemiologists use different lists of criteria. The following list is used in the EIS Summer Course: · consistency among studies - yes (studies by different investigators, different populations) · dose-response - equivocal · temporality (exposure precedes disease) - suggestive · biologic plausibility - perhaps, but no evidence presented yet in this case study |
| Question 21:
Would knowledge that this oil was suspected of being the cause of the disease
have been a problem in these studies?
Answer 21 Yes, bias is certainly possible |
Part VII
A potential problem with many of the studies was that participants were aware of the suggested relationship between consumption of oil from unlabeled 5 liter plastic containers and TOS. This knowledge could have introduced a recall bias into the studies performed. However, the short time between the possible exposure and most of the studies, the use of only one case per affected household, and the frequent need to interview someone other than the ill person to determine the type of oil used by the household, likely kept recall bias to a minimum.
Although outbreaks of disease in close-knit groups were not commonly reported, two convents reported several cases of TOS each. Since convents are closed communities and residents there share virtually all their meals, a study was done to examine in detail the use of food oil in the convents. Both convents housed laywomen in addition to nuns. Meals for the laywomen and nuns in each convent were prepared in the same kitchen, and with the exception of the oil used for cooking and salads, all the other food that was prepared and served was the same for all the residents in each convent. In each convent a number of the nuns who were served the oil from unlabeled 5 liter containers developed TOS, while none of the laywomen, who were served soybean oil, became ill.
A study done in Orcasur [is this the neighborhood survey?] analyzed TOS by the places people purchased unlabeled 5 liter bottles of oil, including grocery stores, supermarkets, oil pressing facilities at olive farms, warehouses, itinerant salesmen, and open air markets. Only oil sold by itinerant salesmen or in open air markets was associated with TOS. These results, plus information obtained through the Ministry of Health (which regulates oil sales) pointed to a particular oil distributor, RAELCA, which used itinerant salesmen rather than the usual outlets for food products.
Investigators went to the RAELCA plant.
| Question 22:
You are in the RAELCA plant. What kinds of evidence would you look for?
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Part VIII
The RAELCA plant contained large holding tanks of oil, a plastic injection mold for making plastic bottles from raw materials, and identical bottles containing oils of different chemical compositions. Investigators collected samples from the holding tanks and individual bottles.
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When the government oil recall took place, attempts were made to place identifying information on each oil specimen. Not all specimens were clearly labeled, thus many of the over 100,000 containers of oil collected during the recall were unsuitable for use in epidemiologic or chemical studies. Nevertheless, in two case-control studies TOS investigators systematically looked for oil containers stored in the official warehouses by the MHCA, and identified those containers potentially useful for research from the thousands in storage.
The first toxico-epidemiologic study was conducted in two locations in the Madrid province, Alcorcón and Leganés. Among the thousands of bottles of oil available, investigators selected for testing those they judged most likely to be associated with TOS -- those that appeared to be the original 5 liter plastic container, having a shape typical of those found at the RAELCA plant), and not full (a full bottle means no oil had been consumed, and therefore it was not associated with disease). Identifying information was used to attempt to contact the family who had turned in the oil. Sixteen other criteria were then applied to the containers of oil initially selected to arrive at the case and control oils. These criteria included sufficient identifying information to locate the family, fulfillment of the case definition for TOS by at least one family member, and a red top on the oil container. Specimens of the oil were chemically analyzed for 21 oil constituents and two measures of oil rancidity, and these results were statistically analyzed.
The second toxico-epidemiologic study used a similar design in the choice of case and non-case oils, but covered all the geographic areas affected by the epidemic.
Three fatty acid anilides – oleyl, linoleyl and palmityl anilide – were highly statistically associated with the oil having come from a family with a member who was ill with TOS. Of these three fatty acid anilides, oleyl was present in the highest concentrations. The relationship between amount of oleyl anilide found in case and control oils for both toxico-epidemiologic studies are shown in Table 4.
Table 4 Amount of an aniline-derived chemical compound (oleyl anilide) in case and control oils, Toxico-epidemiologic studies I and II, Toxic Oil Syndrome, Spain, 1981
Toxico-epidemiologic study IToxico-epidemiologic study II
Oleyl Odds Oleyl Odds
anilide (g/g) Case oilsControl oils Ratio anilide (g/g) Case oilsControl oilsRatio
1,201+ 7 0 Infinite 901+ 9 0 infinite
601-1,200 6 3 8.73 601-900 8 1 16.55
101-600 3 7 1.87 301-600 8 4 4.14
1-100 2 6 1.45 1-300 5 5 2.07
0 11 48 1.0 (Ref) 0 29 60 1.0 (Ref)
Total 29 64 -- Total 59 70 --
| Question 23:
Describe the relationship between dose of oleyl anilide and illness.
Answer 23 Although the odds ratios differ, both studies show a dose-response relationship. |
| Question 24:
What criteria of causation have been met?
Answer 24 · consistency among studies - yes (studies by different investigators, different populations) · dose-response - yes · temporality (exposure precedes disease) - suggestive · biologic plausibility - perhaps, but no evidence presented yet in this case study |
Part IX – Conclusion
Research Issues
While the exact identity of the etiologic agent in TOS remains unknown, work on TOS continues. Follow up clinical studies and long term mortality studies are underway. Investigation of the mechanisms involved in TOS continues. The identification of suspect chemical compounds, their characterization, and effects will hopefully one day contribute to the prevention of other similar diseases.
In the fall of 1989, the United States experienced an epidemic of a new syndrome characterized by severe myalgias and eosinophilia. This syndrome, dubbed eosinpohila-myalgia syndrome (EMS), was quickly linked to ingestion of contaminated L-tryptophan. Because EMS was clinically similar to TOS, American researchers who had participated in the investigation of TOS were able to direct epidemiologic and clinical research appropriately. The pathogenesis of EMS appears to have much in common with TOS, although its complete evolution remains unknown.
Long term follow-up in TOS is of great importance. In addition to documenting the clinical outcomes of TOS patients, follow-up will assist investigators in the United States who continue to study EMS. The clinical resemblance of these two disorders is remarkable, and they could be similar etiologically. Further, features of TOS, especially in its chronic phase, are similar to those of other immunologic diseases.
Recent work in drug-induced lupus suggests that different environmental exposures can provoke connective tissue diseases and that an immunologic similarity may exist among these diseases. Continuing investigation of chemical compounds in TOS oils or in EMS-associated L-tryptophan may one day establish the identity of the etiologic agent in these diseases and help explain the etiology of connective tissue diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus, scleroderma and rheumatoid arthritis, whose causes remain unknown.
Social Issues
A variety of factors played a role in the social and political repercussions of the TOS epidemic. The beginning of the epidemic was acute and massive – within the first month and a half after the epidemic began 80 people had died and over 12,000 had become ill. TOS was a new systemic disease without any known treatment that primarily affected people of middle to low socio-economic status. The immediate cause of TOS was unknown for at least a month and a half after the epidemic began and rumors surrounding possible causes were rampant. TOS was also a toxic illness associated with illegal trade in a fraudulent food product. [This was never brought up in the case study] As the epidemic progressed serious deficiencies in the control of the food oil market by regulatory authorities were documented.
Taken together, these factors caused a societal upheaval, first based on fear and anxiety about an unknown and potentially deadly illness, and later based on compassion for affected citizens. In the end, the government provided economic and social assistance to mitigate needs that TOS had created in families, and the judicial process sentenced those who were held legally responsible.
These social attitudes made the work of the investigators and physicians difficult. On one hand the media exerted pressure regarding what should be investigated at any particular time, increasing public anxiety and unease. On the other hand the association of possible economic benefits with a person's health caused confusion for physicians regarding the authenticity of the complex symptomatology of this disease, an attitude which persists even today.
References
Case Definition of Toxic Oil Syndrome Proposed by the Spanish Clinical Commission, August 3, 1981.*
Major criteria
2. Pulmonary pathology with radiologic findings of diffuse interstitial or alveolar interstitial infiltrates, with or without pleural effusion
3. Incapacitating myalgias with functional impairment
4. Eosinophil count greater than 500 eosinophils per mm3
2. Severe skin itching
3. Rash or localized edema of skin
4. Severe and persistent mouth dryness
5. Minimal or moderate myalgias
6. Neurologic pathology
7. Abdominal pain
8. Clinical or analytical signs of hepatic involvement
9. Recent onset of exertional dyspnea
10. Recent onset of hypoxemia
11. Pulmonary hypertension
12. Cardiomyopathy
13. Vascular thrombosis
Appendix B
Epidemiologic studies of toxic oil syndrome, Spain, 1981.
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Madrid |
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Navas del Marqués (Avila) | 27/30 affected families in town | 108 unaffected families, 54 selected randomly; 54 randomly but matched for size |
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Pozuelo de Alarcón (Madrid) | Families of patients from Pozuelo admitted to Clinica Puerta de Hierro | Neighborhood families |
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Chozas de Abajo (León) | All affected families | Randomly selected families |
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p=0.05
CI = 0.7-inf |
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Cerezo de Arriba (Segovia) | All affected families | Other families |
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San Cristobal de Entrevías (Zamora) | All affected families | 2 sets - one selected at random and one matched |
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p=0.0016
CI= 2.6-inf |
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Bocigas de Perales (Soria) | All affected families | All other families |
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p=0.034
CI=0.89-inf |
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Arconada (Palencia) | All affected individuals | All unaffected families |
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p=0.0014
CI=2.32-inf |
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Colmenar Viejo (Madrid) | Patients from Colmenar admitted to specific hospital | Neighborhood families |
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p=0.004
OR=9.3 CI=2.2-40 |
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Madrid |
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p=0
OR=15.6 CI=6.7-37 |
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Madrid |
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p=4x10-13
CI=21.7-inf |
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Madrid | 42/43 | 0/70 | p=2.3x10-30
CI=incalc. |
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Madrid - Orcasur neighborhood | Door-to-door neighborhood survey | Door-to-door neighborhood survey | 8/8 | 72/204 | |